The Science Behind MTNMetrics

We use peer-reviewed research from the U.S. Army to estimate energy expenditure during loaded hiking—accounting for factors that consumer tools often overlook.

A More Thoughtful Approach Than Rules of Thumb

"Pack 2 lbs of food per day." It's the advice you'll find in every backpacking guide. But it doesn't account for:

  • Your body size and metabolism
  • How heavy your pack is
  • The terrain you'll be hiking
  • How much elevation you'll gain and lose
  • How fast you hike

A 120 lb ultralight hiker with a 15 lb pack on a flat trail has very different calorie needs than a 200 lb hunter with a 60 lb pack climbing 4,000 feet. Yet the "2 lbs per day" rule treats them the same.

The result? Some hikers bonk on Day 3. Others lose 10+ lbs on a thru-hike. And many carry pounds of uneaten food home because they planned for worst-case scenarios.

Introducing the LCDA Equation

LCDA stands for Load Carriage Decision Aid. It's a metabolic prediction equation developed by the US Army Research Institute of Environmental Medicine (USARIEM) specifically for predicting energy expenditure during loaded marches.

The LCDA equation was built from the ground up to handle the unique demands of carrying heavy loads over varied terrain—the kind of conditions backpackers, thru-hikers, and backcountry hunters encounter.

The research was published in Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise in 2022 after validation against measured energy expenditure in controlled studies. It accounts for all the factors that generic calculators miss.

What the LCDA Equation Accounts For

Peer-reviewed research used in the LCDA model shows that each of these factors affects your calorie burn. The equation combines them into a single, validated prediction.

Body Weight

Heavier hikers burn more calories moving their mass. The equation scales appropriately.

A 200 lb hiker burns ~30% more than a 150 lb hiker at the same pace.

Pack Weight

This is the big one. Carrying a load dramatically increases energy expenditure in a non-linear way.

A 40 lb pack can increase calorie burn by 30-50% vs. unloaded hiking.

Walking Speed

Faster hiking burns more calories per hour, but the relationship isn't linear—there's an efficiency sweet spot.

Hiking at 3.5 mph burns significantly more than 2.5 mph.

Terrain Type

Different surfaces require different amounts of energy. Sand is exhausting. Packed trails are efficient.

Walking on sand requires 50% more energy than pavement.

Grade (Slope)

Uphills and downhills have very different energy costs. Steep descents actually require more energy than gentle ones.

A 10% uphill grade increases energy cost by ~70%.

Terrain Energy Coefficients

These coefficients come from Pandolf et al.'s research on terrain effects, incorporated into the LCDA model. They represent how much harder it is to walk on each surface compared to a paved road.

TerrainCoefficientImpact
Paved Road1.0Baseline
Grass1.08+8% energy
Dirt Road1.2+20% energy
Trail1.15+15% energy
Light Brush1.15+15% energy
Heavy Brush1.35+35% energy
Packed Snow1.3+30% energy
Sand1.5+50% energy
Loose Snow1.5+50% energy
Swamp3.5+250% energy

Read the Research

Primary Source

Looney DP, Santee WR, Karis AJ, Blanchard LA, Rome MN, Carter AJ, Potter AW. Modeling the Metabolic Costs of Heavy Military Backpacking. Med Sci Sports Exerc. 2022 Apr 1;54(4):646-654.

PMC8919998Peer-ReviewedUS Army Research
View on PubMed

Additional research incorporated into our model includes terrain coefficients from Pandolf et al. and grade adjustment factors from Santee et al.

Important Note

MTNMetrics provides calorie estimates based on peer-reviewed research to help with trip planning. These are estimates only—individual energy expenditure varies based on fitness level, efficiency, altitude acclimatization, weather conditions, and other factors not captured by any equation.

The LCDA equation was developed and validated for military applications and has shown good correlation with measured energy expenditure in research settings. However, actual results may differ. Use these estimates as a planning starting point, not a guarantee.

MTNMetrics is not affiliated with or endorsed by the U.S. Department of Defense or the U.S. Army Research Institute of Environmental Medicine.

See It in Action

Try our free calculator to see how these factors affect your calorie needs, or join the waitlist for the full app with route-based planning.

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